For Immediate Release February 15, 2006

For More Information Contact: Rich Schneider, 317-278-4564 rcschnei@iupui.edu

Global Warming Study Looks To Need For Modeling Regional, Local Climate Changes

INDIANAPOLIS - The debate concerning global warming has reached an important milestone: not if global warming is occurring - it is - but whether scientists can develop ways to more robustly predict climate surprises and foreseeable climate changes regionally and locally.

Gabriel Filippelli, a geology professor and chair of the Department of Geology in the School of Science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, will discuss his research that underscores the importance of knowing ahead of time what climate changes may be in store for a particular area within the next 50 to 100 years.

Filippelli's research focuses on a subtle climate change that occurred 8,200 years ago related to ocean circulation patterns in the North Atlantic. His research findings show that while it was subtle change that was hardly noticeable, it triggered a massive regional response from Mother Nature, translating into significant advances of glaciers, transforming landscapes and toppling forests.

That is what scientists call a climate surprise because the response of the Earth is far greater than what otherwise might be expected, a response stemming from the reinforcement of climate change by the planet's complex ecosystem

The conclusion is far from academic. It is known now that the circulation patterns of the North Atlantic are changing again because of human activity - melting of freshwater ice in the North Atlantic that is changing the way that ocean circulates. Globally, the climate will continue to grow warmer, but the North Atlantic region will likely cool and cool dramatically for a couple of hundred years, just as it did 8,200 years ago.

Knowing global climate change is occurring is good, but converting that into models and projections for regional and local climate change is even more important to enable areas to plan for climate change. For example, the climates of Indiana and Illinois will become more like northern Texas and Oklahoma in the coming decades, with milder winters and warmer, humid summers that provide less rainfall than occurs now - on-the-ground factors that will affect vital economic sectors within those states, like farming.

###